Trump, Vance in Atlanta Saturday: How high are the stakes for this rally?

ATLANTA – Former President Donald Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, are set to visit Atlanta on Saturday for their first joint rally in Georgia. The event is scheduled to take place at the Georgia State University Convocation Center. 

Their visit follows Vice President Kamala Harris’s rally at the same venue on Tuesday night, marking her first appearance since President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race. 

Georgia a battleground state in the 2024 election 

Georgia remains a crucial battleground state, with Republicans hopeful that Biden’s waning popularity, combined with concerns over inflation and immigration, will benefit them in the upcoming election. However, recent Democratic gains have made the political landscape resemble 2020, when Biden narrowly won the state. 

“Black turnout was very high in 2020. If that goes down or if Trump is able to win some of the Black voters in Atlanta and across the state, that’s going to really increase his chance of winning here in the state,” said Zachary Peskowitz, an associate professor of political science at Emory University. 

The Harris campaign, along with Georgia Democratic officials, has established 24 offices across the state, including two new ones in metro Atlanta. Meanwhile, Trump and the Republican National Committee have only recently opened their first offices in Georgia. 

“If Trump loses Georgia it’s going to be very hard for him to win. The Democrats have some more paths even if they do lose Georgia. But they definitely have quite a bit of ground to make up to win Georgia,” said Peskowitz.

Democrats are aiming for high turnout among traditional Democratic voters, strong support in the suburbs, and small gains in other areas to secure a win for Harris in Georgia. This strategy was evident at recent Democratic office openings. 

“It has some elements that are very positive, like the low unemployment and then others that aren’t. So, the high inflation and cost of living that we’ve experienced over the last couple of years,” said Peskowitz.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, stated that strong GOP campaigns can win comfortably in Georgia, but weak efforts can lead to losses against strong Democratic campaigns. Kemp won reelection by 7.5 percentage points over Democrat Stacey Abrams in 2022, while Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock defeated his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, endorsed by Trump. 

“Many highly educated suburban voters, many of them white, they switched from voting Republican to Democratic, so Trump really struggled about affluent educated suburban Atlanta voters,” said Peskowitz.

In recent elections, Democrats have held significant advantages in metro Atlanta, as well as in Columbus, Savannah, and several rural, majority-Black counties. Conversely, Republicans have maintained dominance in other rural areas, small towns, and cities where Trump has held multiple rallies in recent years. 

Laken Riley and the Trump-Vance rally 

In announcing the rally, the Trump campaign referenced the death of Laken Riley, a Georgia nursing student who was murdered earlier this year at the University of Georgia. A Venezuelan immigrant has been charged with her murder. Trump had previously mentioned Riley during his acceptance speech for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination, describing her as a “brilliant 22-year-old nursing student.” He criticized the Biden administration, blaming Riley’s death on what he described as the Democrats’ immigration policies. 

“Yet another American life was stolen by a criminal alien set free by this administration,” Trump said at the Republican National Convention. “Tonight, America, this is my vow. I will not let these killers and criminals into our country.” 

The rally is scheduled to begin at 5 p.m., with doors opening at 1 p.m.