Vice President Kamala Harris is eating into Donald Trump’s lead in the key battleground states that could determine the outcome of the presidential election in November, according to a Republican polling company.
The new survey, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies between July 23 and 29, found that overall both Trump and Harris received 46 percent of the vote across five swing states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Arizona). Meanwhile, 4 percent of voters backed third-party candidates, and 4 percent were undecided.
When looking at the states individually, the results revealed that Harris was ahead in two, securing 48 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania to Trump’s 45 percent, and 48 percent in Wisconsin to Trump’s 46 percent. Meanwhile, Harris and Trump were neck and neck in Michigan, with both securing 45 percent of the vote.
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However, Trump held the lead in two other states, securing 48 percent of the vote in Arizona to Harris’ 43 percent, and 46 percent in Nevada to Harris’ 45 percent.
The poll surveyed 400 people and had a margin of error of +/- 2.19 percent.
Newsweek has contacted representatives for Trump and Harris for comment via email.
Since Harris launched her campaign two weeks ago, swing state polls have shown that Harris has closed the gap on Trump compared to when Biden was on the ticket.
In a poll conducted by Bloomberg and Morning Consult between July 24 and 28, across all seven states, which included responses from 4,972 voters, Harris held a 1 point lead, beating Trump 48 percent to 47 percent.
The poll marked an improvement for the Democratic party compared to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted at the beginning of July, which showed that then-Democratic presumptive nominee President Joe Biden trailed Trump by 2 percentage points on average across the seven states.
In the poll, Harris had the biggest lead over Trump in Michigan, where she was leading him by 53 percent to his 42 percent.
She was also found on Tuesday to be beating Trump in Arizona (49 percent to 47 percent), Nevada (47 percent to 45 percent), and Wisconsin (49 percent to 47 percent). Trump was still up by 4 percentage points in Pennsylvania (50 percent to 46 percent), and the candidates were tied in Georgia at 47 percent.
Other polls have also shown that Harris is eating into Trump’s margins. In another survey conducted by Morning Consult after Biden ended his reelection campaign, the former president was only 2 points ahead of Harris, after a previous survey by the same pollsters put Trump four points ahead of Biden—46 percent to the president’s 42 percent.
Meanwhile, in a recent poll conducted by Leger, Harris retained a lead over Trump, winning 49 percent of likely voters to his 46 percent. That represents a 4 point increase since a poll by Leger in June, when Biden was still the Democratic candidate.
However, polling experts still believe Trump could win in November.
According to election analyst and statistician Nate Silver, while Harris is more likely to win the popular vote, Trump has a greater chance of winning the Electoral College.
His model shows that Trump has a 61.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris’ chances stand at 38.1 percent. In the popular vote, Harris has a 53.5 percent chance of winning, while Trump has a 46.5 percent chance.
Silver correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election.
Meanwhile, aggregate polls from The New York Times, The Hill, and RealClearPolitics show Trump leading Harris by between 1 and 2 points. However, they also show Trump leading Harris at a smaller margin than Biden prior to his exit.
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