Republican Senate candidates are trailing further behind their Democratic rivals in four key swing states, according to a poll.
A Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group/BSG Swing State Project survey shows that Democratic Senate hopefuls running in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania have increased their vote share over their Republican challengers compared with a previous survey in May.
The only state where a Republican candidate has improved their vote share from the previous survey is Wisconsin, where Republican Eric Hovde has gone from being 12 points behind Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin to 7 points in the latest survey (43 percent to 50 percent).
In Arizona, Democratic Senate hopeful Representative Ruben Gallego has increased his lead over former GOP gubernatorial hopeful Kari Lake from 5 points to 9 points (51 percent to 42 percent) between the two polls.
Michigan Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin leads the race for the state’s Senate seat against former GOP Representative Mike Rogers by 8 points (50 percent to 42 percent), an increase of 6 points for Slotkin from May.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Senator Bob Casey leads 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick by 13 points (53 percent to 40). In the previous poll, Casey led McCormick by 8 points.
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In Nevada, Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen is currently leading Republican candidate Sam Brown by 18 points (54 percent to 36 percent), up from 7 points in the May survey.
Reacting to the poll, a spokesperson for Lake told Newsweek: “Cook Political is notoriously bad at polling and predicting elections. In 2020, they were wrong on 27 of 28 key races. Kari Lake is going to win.”
Kristy Wilkinson, communications director for Brown, also told Newsweek: “I’d trust this poll about as much as I trust Jacky Rosen to file her financial disclosures honestly, which is to say not at all. If you believe this poll, you don’t know Nevada.”
Newsweek reached out to and Rogers’ teams via email and McCormick’s team via social media for comment.
The two remaining swing states of Georgia and North Carolina are not holding Senate elections in November.
However, in a generic congressional ballot with no named candidates, the Cook Political Report data shows that both states have flipped from Republican to Democratic between the two surveys.
Despite a strong showing in the swing states, Cook Political Report said that the overall Senate map continues to be “daunting” for Democrats, who currently control the upper chamber by a 51-49 seat margin, including four independent senators who caucus or align with the party.
“Democrats. Montana Sen. Jon Tester remains the most in peril in a state Trump won in 2020 by 16 points, followed by Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown in a Trump +8 state,” Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for Cook Political Report, wrote in her analysis of the polls.
“As we’ve previously detailed, the current map essentially starts out at 50-50, with Republicans assured to pick up the open West Virginia Senate seat,” Taylor said.
“Therefore, Democrats cannot afford to lose any incumbents and must keep the White House as well. But even if Tester or Brown were to lose, Democrats may be able to halt any further losses if these numbers hold through November.”
Elsewhere, Vice President Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup across the seven swing states by 48 percent to 47 for the presidency.
“With Harris now leading in these swing states, Republican senate candidates need to quickly change the dynamics of their races by focusing on the Senate Democrats’ role in advancing the Harris-Biden inflation agenda that’s driven the cost of living so high for middle class voters,” said GS Strategies President Greg Strimple.
The Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group/BSG Swing State Project survey was conducted between July 26 and August 2 among 2,867 likely voters: 435 in Arizona, 405 in Georgia, 406 in Michigan, 403 in Nevada, 403 in North Carolina, 411 in Pennsylvania and 404 in Wisconsin.
Update 08/15/24, 11:50 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Kari Lake’s spokesperson.
Update 08/16/24, 03:15 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Kristy Wilkinson, communications director for Sam Brown.
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