Sanders’s stubborn success in the primary was partially an endorsement of a completely different approach to politics. Haley’s continued support—she has received between 25 and 40 percent in early contests—should be seen in a similar light, even if her approach (cautious, polite) is quite the opposite of Sanders’s. But this support, by persisting in the face of certain loss, is also the inverse of an endorsement: a protest vote against the opponent. Haley’s voters are coming out to reject the reprobate who most elected Republicans are already treating as the nominee, and who has spent many months whining that he has not received a coronation. Clinton was similarly miffed by Sanders’s challenge, which defied expectations but ultimately never posed a mortal threat to Clinton’s glide path to the nomination, thanks to her rock-solid support within the party’s establishment.
Clinton’s struggles within the party pointed to deep problems, though. She narrowly lost to Sanders in Michigan and was defeated by more than 10 points in Wisconsin, two key states that would go on to cost her the presidency. In the primary, she repeatedly struggled with young voters, but there were also signs of vulnerabilities with white working-class voters. Trump’s struggles in the 2024 primary suggest a different demographic vulnerability: Haley is cleaning up with college-educated voters and doing very well among the handful of moderates who still vote in Republican primaries. (She has also performed reasonably well in states with open primaries that allow anyone to vote regardless of party ID, with Michigan being a recent exception.)
In retrospect, Clinton’s struggle to put Sanders away should have been treated more seriously by her campaign. It represented a larger struggle to unite her party and build a coalition that could win the general election. Trump’s struggles at this point are almost identical—and may in fact be more pronounced. He is running a campaign with no overtures to a wider electorate and is instead relying on his sizable coalition of die-hard supporters to carry him to victory. That reliance is coming at the expense of moderates and Republican-leaning independents who have, again and again, come out for Haley.
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