Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson are locked in a statistical tie in a new Marist survey, a warning for Republicans that Maine’s fiercely independent electorate has left the contest unsettled in the final week.
Among likely voters, Jackson receives 49 percent and Collins 47 percent. That two-point difference is far smaller than the poll’s plus-or-minus 6.6 percentage-point margin of error, so the result cannot establish who is actually ahead. The survey is better read as evidence of a genuinely competitive race than as a precise scoreboard.
The likely-voter sample also contains a contradiction that helps explain the campaign’s closing argument: 58 percent expect Collins to win regardless of whom they support. Voters may see vulnerability in the Republican incumbent while still believing her long history of outperforming partisan expectations will carry her through.
Independents are the clearest danger sign
Marist finds Jackson leading 50 percent to 41 percent among independents who are likely to vote. That is a meaningful problem for Collins because her political identity has long depended on winning voters who do not reliably support either party.
Maine’s electorate rewards independence, and Collins has spent her career presenting herself as a pragmatic Republican willing to break with her party. Her campaign points to work on health care, Alzheimer’s and diabetes research, the Social Security Fairness Act, small-business assistance and nearly $1.5 billion in congressionally directed spending for Maine projects over five years.
Those are campaign claims and should be evaluated against the public record, but they define the case Collins is making: seniority, appropriations influence and tangible benefits for a small state. She is also the first Maine senator in nearly a century to chair the Senate Appropriations Committee, a position her campaign argues gives Maine an outsized voice.
Jackson is trying to turn the race away from seniority and toward economic frustration. The former Maine Senate president and fifth-generation logger is running on Medicare for All, lower prescription-drug costs, higher taxes on billionaires and corporations, abolishing ICE, abortion rights and broader civil-rights protections. Maine election records confirm that he became the Democratic replacement nominee in July.
Trump is a factor, but not the whole contest
The poll shows how difficult the national political environment is for a Republican running statewide in Maine. Among likely voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is 42 percent, while 58 percent disapprove. Forty-one percent say their congressional vote is a vote against Trump, compared with 16 percent who say it is a vote in support of him. Another 42 percent say the president is not much of a factor.
Collins has tried to maintain distance from Trump without abandoning Republican voters. She has emphasized her own record and, during a recent appearance with former Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, highlighted her willingness to work across party lines. That balancing act is not new, but the poll suggests it remains necessary.
For Republicans, the immediate objective is to keep the race focused on Collins rather than make it a pure referendum on the president. She needs a strong Republican base, a better share of independents than Marist currently shows and support from voters who may disapprove of Trump but still value her seniority.
The wide margin of error matters
The survey interviewed 1,449 registered voters from Oct. 22 through Oct. 25 by phone, text and online. Results among all registered voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 points. The likely-voter estimate has the larger 6.6-point margin because it relies on a smaller modeled subgroup.
Among all registered voters, Jackson leads by nine points, an increase from four points earlier in October. That broader measure is notable, but registered-voter samples include people who may not cast ballots. The likely-voter result is more relevant to the outcome, even though its wider uncertainty demands caution.
Other findings reinforce the challenge. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 52 percent to 47 percent among likely voters and hold a 17-point advantage among independents. A plurality of likely voters, 46 percent, say their personal finances have worsened during the past year; 15 percent say they have improved.
None of those numbers decides the Senate contest. They describe a climate in which Collins cannot rely on party registration or incumbency alone.
The final week is about turnout and trust
Early voting in Maine continues through Oct. 29, and Election Day is Nov. 3. Voters can obtain current absentee-ballot and polling information from the Maine Secretary of State rather than relying on campaign messages.
Jackson’s path is to consolidate Democrats, maintain his apparent advantage among independents and make economic discontent the overriding issue. Collins’s path is to remind undecided voters why they have returned her to Washington for decades, separate her brand from national Republican liabilities and turn respect for her effectiveness into actual votes.
The Marist poll does not prove Collins is losing. It shows something Republicans cannot ignore: Maine remains competitive, independent voters are pivotal and the incumbent’s reputation alone may not be enough. The 58 percent who still expect her to win give Collins reason for confidence. The statistical tie gives her campaign reason to work as if every remaining vote is decisive.
Sources
- Marist Poll: The Midterm Elections in Maine, October 2026
- Susan Collins campaign summary of her record
- Troy Jackson campaign biography and policy priorities
- Maine Secretary of State replacement-candidate record
- Maine Secretary of State voter information for the Nov. 3 election
- Associated Press report on Collins’s campaign for independent voters